I disagree somewhat. For example the 2 year is simply the 1 year spot rate (ie “fedzone”) and the 1 year, 1 year forward (ie future fedzone). I don’t think you can so neatly bifurcate the Tsy curve. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/yield-curve-is-no-longer-a-reliable-recession-predictor-wells-fargo.html